Quantum How Do I Love Thee, Let Me Count the Ways

Yes, I got into Quantum again at $1.76 on 9/6/11 and exited on a stop at $1.89 on 9/8/11.  I have now bought and sold Quantum three times since April of this year for a total 37% return.  If I'd bought and held my original purchase at $2.79, I would now be very deeply in the hole.  Nevertheless, I remain a believer in buy and hold -- sometimes and if you buy after the market has been decimated.  For now, my view seems to hold:  the markets will be hit by repeated and volatile shocks up and down as the very real bad news is countered by the not so real attempts by policy makers to prop them up.  My suspicion about "things being too easy" makes me want to short Quantum now but I think the company is actually fairly valued given its risk and notice that even in the market massacre today, it is holding up.  A good sign.

Riding the Quantum (QTM) Train -- Again

By way of confession, I've indulged my bad habit of short-term trading again.  One of my favorite low price stocks, Quantum, dropped significantly during the recent market dips.  I bought at $1.85 on Aug. 22 and sold out yesterday at $1.97.  My purchase was based on several principles.  First, Quantum is volatile.  While this volatility could work negatively, it could also result in a quick bump up.  After the market dips, my instinct was that there would be a bump up.  Second, Quantum is worth more than $1.85 and was beaten down by the market crashes.  The corollary to this is that Quantumm, while Quantum might sink further in the near term, it was a safe investment long-term.  Third, Quantum is an acquisition candidate, giving me another way to win.  Fourth, I believe that for some time we will be looking at repeated and significant market dips and upward surges.  Why?  There is a lot of bad news that will keep hitting markets because the world economies are not in good shape.  Nevertheless, there are a lot of very powerful, wealthy entities both here and abroad that are invested in continuing to trade whatever economic conditions and these entities will produce surges.  There are also governmental forces which have a strong interest in keeping markets rising or at least stable.  These competing forces will continue to do battle for some time, since neither promises to run out of steam for the foreseeable future.  Did any of the aforementioned factors enter into my modest win on QTM?  1, 2, and 3, in my opinion.

To Sell Google or Not to Sell Google, That is the Question

I bought Google at $537 per share (after in an earlier life buying it at $247 and selling at $320 -- there is perhaps another lesson there).  As some of you may have noticed, Google has spiked dramatically to over $600 per share after reporting earnings.  I do believe that it's worth much more than $600 ultimately but it's tough not to sell it after the recent upswing because I think the world generally is in for more negative economic news which will once again depress Google.  I'll think on this some more but why do I think Google is worth much more?  A host of reasons but compare it to Microsoft, which is arguably a proxy for similar growth.  Google began life trading at less than $100 per share.  It now trades for 6x that.  I dare say that Microsoft is now trading at far more than 6x its initial offering price.  Yes, I know, there are differences but rough measures in these instances are useful, I think.  Also, new computers using Google Chrome are selling quite well.  One more step toward the browser as operating system, the "dumb box" computer accessing a smart cloud, and Google eclipse of Microsoft.

Avocados and Demographic Investing

I can't take credit for this idea but read it in a Value Line special situations newsletter. The premise is that you look for growth. Where does the U.S. have a lot of growth: its Hispanic population. So look for investments that will prosper as the Hispanic population grows. Value Line suggested avocado growers, since Hispanic food incorporates avocadoes to a greater extent than European-derived American cuisine.  Come to think of it, Sushi in the U.S. seems to use a lot of avocadoes and Sushi restaurants also seem to be on the rise.  Take a look here:

http://www.californiaavocadogrowers.com/