Monday, May 23, 2011
Facebook; 5 years; 50%
In five years, Facebook will be worth no more than 50% of what it is now. Why? Because the people who use it now will grow tired of it or they will have more competition for their time from new sources. The people who don't use it yet will want something new (remember MySpace?) that helps them form their own online identities. As an example of both of these phenomena, check out Like a Little (http://likealittle.com/home). With internet sites like Facebook, you're not competing for dollars but for time (or attention, if you will). There is a finite amount of time (24 hours times number of people with internet connection). Ultimately, Facebook will fall to this unalterable law, as have so many others already. See also Ebay auction numbers for the quickly dwindling appeal of what seemed like the hottest concept ever less than a decade ago.