Tuesday, December 20, 2011

PRIS, MGM, and Spanish Borrowing

     I am checking back in on a few stocks I've discussed recently.  My worry that the window on MGM might have passed me by (at least temporarily) has been confirmed.  I was not using a stop and MGM sunk below $9.  Why no stop?  Because I strongly believe it is one of the casino stocks that will violently surge up at positive signs in the American economy.  This explanation is insufficient:  it must also be coupled with a belief (which I have) that positive signs in the American economy will be reported in coming months, whether these signs are accurate or not.  In the meantime, MGM has gone up again, coming near my entry point.  I'm willing to wait.
    PRIS was an easy choice this morning.  News of lower Spanish borrowing costs told me the stock would benefit.  Good news for Spain is good news for PRIS.  So far, so good.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011


I've been laying low for a while without much activity, just watching things play out in Europe.  I made some money on PRIS but, once it shot up, I got out.  Too much volatility.  Only purchase since I last checked in has been MGM.  Bought it at $9.60 because I felt we were on edge of a positive news cycle at the time and I believe that investors are waiting to pour into casino stocks at the first sign of a turn in the economy.  Not that I believe the US economy is actually turning in any meaningful way.  In any event, MGM has been up to $10.50 or so but I decided to just hang in and now it's back down today to around $9.80.  I don't particularly love MGM but it was below $10 in the right sector, at the right time.  Now we'll see if I missed my window on it. 

Thursday, December 1, 2011

PRIS and EU Follow Up

Well, looks like a number of us (Jubak, Cramer, me, etc.) were right and the EU will effectively print money to save its financial system.  This has had a predictable effect on PRIS, which is trading at $4.80 this morning.  Hope you took my advice and got in when it was below $4.  I got out around $4.40, hedging against the possibility that Europe would just fail to act quickly enough to stave off disaster.  Which, by the way, is still a possibility.  On a meta-level, what is really going on?  Central banks, including the Fed, are instituting financial policies which save financial institutions but provide no clear benefit to the average citizen and, in fact, shift the costs to the average citizen.  The hope is that the U.S. and European economies will begin to grow again quickly enough that the bills can be paid.  Precisely what you would expect from policy-makers:  use admittedly wrong methods to prevent worse evils from occurring today and hope for the best down the road.