Wednesday, June 13, 2012
Facebook: How Soon Will My Prediction Come True?
In one of my first posts on this blog, I predicted that in 5 years' time, Facebook would lose half of its value. That may happen much quicker than I thought based on the recent IPO (my prediction was pre-IPO). I noticed an interesting stat from a recent Pew Foundation study, however. The average age of a Facebook user in 2010 was 38. I would have guessed much younger. Given this average age, one might think that Facebook's appeal will not be as tied to a young, "cool" factor as MySpace was -- and thus will not bleed users once the next generation of fickle youth want to choose their own defiing network rather than their parents' or older siblings' social media of choice. The average age cuts both ways, however. Consumption and gullibility generally decline with age. This would seem to make Facebook's goal of monetizing its user base harder. All in all, I'll stick with my prediction.