Monday, August 6, 2012

My Facebook Prediction and the Speed of Change

On May 23, 2011, I predicted that Facebook would lose half of its value within 5 years due to loss of users: .  Arguably, the 50% loss has already occurred but I don't raise the issue to take credit (I fully expect Facebook to lose more value over time), but rather to consider a point:  the world may be moving much faster than my previous conceptions of it would permit.  Another case in point:  one of my first posts predicted that Google would acquire Motorola Mobility within 5 years.  That prediction proved correct but took 5 months.  These are anecdotes to be sure, but I'm now examining my assumptions about the speed of change and the volatility of the world and its markets. 

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