Monday, August 6, 2012
My Facebook Prediction and the Speed of Change
On May 23, 2011, I predicted that Facebook would lose half of its value within 5 years due to loss of users: http://limbinvest.blogspot.com/2011/05/facebook-5-years-50.html . Arguably, the 50% loss has already occurred but I don't raise the issue to take credit (I fully expect Facebook to lose more value over time), but rather to consider a point: the world may be moving much faster than my previous conceptions of it would permit. Another case in point: one of my first posts predicted that Google would acquire Motorola Mobility within 5 years. That prediction proved correct but took 5 months. These are anecdotes to be sure, but I'm now examining my assumptions about the speed of change and the volatility of the world and its markets.